Apple Dodges Another Bullet

Over the weekend, we learned that smartphones and computers are now exempt from the latest tariffs. U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) confirmed that smartphones, computer monitors, and various electronic components are among the exempted items. This means Apple has dodged another bullet — again.

This news is clearly good for Apple and for us as customers in the short term. However, it’s also a flashing red warning for the future. Apple currently assembles over 90% of its iPhones in China. That represents an enormous concentration of risk in one country. That’s too much for any company, and certainly too much for a company shipping hundreds of millions of devices annually to customers worldwide.

I fully acknowledge that moving iPhone manufacturing out of China isn’t as simple as flipping a switch. Apple has spent decades meticulously building that supply chain, a masterpiece of logistics and precision manufacturing. But global trade dynamics are evolving rapidly, and Apple can’t afford to stand still. This isn’t about politics; it’s about resilience.

Apple has executed Herculean efforts before. Now is another moment when they must rise to the occasion. Diversifying their manufacturing base might be the single most critical long-term move they can make right now. (That sentence was difficult to write because I also believe they need to fix their Siri/AI issues. But ultimately, they need to ship iPhone devices regardless of their current limitations.)

The Initial Response to the iPhone

The iPhone is now 18 years old, and it’s easy to forget life before it. I used mobile phones before iPhone, and the difference was night and day.

The original iPhone was announced at Macworld in January 2007 .

Over the years, we’ve heard a lot about how competitors put their heads in the sand when the iPhone was first announced. My favorite is the story about Blackberry not believing it was true, that Jobs had somehow faked everybody out with non-existent technology.

However, in a recent data release by Nokia, it’s clear that they took it seriously. Nokia immediately started shifting direction with its products in development, recognizing the value of the multi-touch user interface. People now say that the iPhone innovation was inevitable and that if Apple hadn’t done it, somebody else would have devised a smart phone with a flat slate of glass. But looking at contemporaneous documents, it sure doesn’t seem like it. (via John Gruber’s Daring Fireball.)

Apple’s iPhone Testing Lab

I found this video fascinating. Of course, Apple’s testing facility looks like something from a science fiction movie.

An interesting point here is the tradeoff between reliability and repairability. As Apple tries to make its devices more repairable, how does it maintain reliability? This is interesting because an iPhone is not a washing machine. What I mean is that a washing machine should lean toward repairability. Ideally, a 10-year-old washing machine should be something you can repair and keep running. A 10-year-old iPhone, however, is not something you’d want to repair given the rate of advancement in technology (i.e. faster processors, new features, better cameras). There isn’t an easy answer here. Nevertheless, Apple’s space-aged testing lab is worth checking out.

Rumination on the Action Button

The rumors surrounding the iPhone 16 get more accurate as we get further into the year. One prevalent idea is that an additional button, dubbed the capture button, will be added to the iPhone 16 on all models. The idea of this seems simple enough: You hold up your phone, point at someone, and capture a picture. It’s unclear whether this will be addressable, like the Action button, that you can set to trigger an automation or other actions. But if I had to bet a nickel, I’d say you will not be able to do that. I think the idea is for Apple to have a button on the phone that will always take a picture.

It’s intriguing to witness the emergence of this button at this particular time. The iPhone has been around for a long time now, and the concept of a capture button isn’t novel. In fact, Apple introduced one on its battery case a few years back. I can’t help but speculate if the timing of this addition is Apple simply seeking to introduce something new.

Either way, I expect the capture button is aimed at the general market and not just us geeks. (I’d argue that the Action button, in contrast, is aimed at the geekier customers.)

Many people would appreciate the ability to quickly take a picture with their iPhone without any other manipulation but pushing a single button. It’s still early, and this capture button is not confirmed, but there is a lot of smoke around this idea, and I hope it comes true.

“Shot on iPhone 15 Pro Max”

Perhaps the biggest news of the Scary Fast Apple event is that Apple shot the whole thing on the iPhone 15 Pro Max. So the Mac event was, at least, kind of about the iPhone. It’s remarkable how far the iPhone has come as a camera.

Apple shared details of how they did it. There’s some really nice equipment in this footage which begs the question, did they use iPhones to shoot the video about using the iPhone to shoot the event?

The Rumored Gray iPhone Pro

In the last week, we’ve had a lot of rumors that a gray iPhone Pro is in the works. If true, it will replace gold in the new titanium iPhone 15 Pro lineup.

My guess is that making a gold-colored titanium phone isn’t easy, so Apple decided to lean into the titanium gray.

Whatever the reason, I am down with it. I’m unsure if it is because I’m sick of the standard white and black iPhones or because my hair is also increasingly trending titanium gray. Regardless, I like the new look.

Source: 9to5Mac

Increasing iPhone US Market Share

In a recent study by Counterpoint Research (as summarized by Ben Lovejoy at 9to5 Mac), smartphone shipments are down by 24%, but Apple’s market share is up from 45% to 55%.

First, About That Decline…

Setting aside last year’s inflation and the economy in general, I’m not surprised that fewer people are buying smartphones. We’ve gotten past the point where the phones are making so monumental a jump every year, and I think most folks have slowed down their upgrade cycles.

Second, About Apple’s Increase…

This is the bit that interests me. Why did Apple’s market share jump 10% in one year? I’m sure a few people at Apple Park know precisely why, but we have to guess a bit from the outside. I can think of a few reasons:

  • Mature product line: Apple is getting phones of all sizes and at all price points out these days. If you want an iPhone, there’s probably a path for you.
  • The Big (non-Pro) iPhone: I expect many people were waiting for a big-screen iPhone without the iPhone Pro price tag. They got that in the last year.
  • Privacy: While I expect this to be a smaller factor, I believe Apple’s privacy focus is sinking in.

I’m sure there’s more, but a 10% jump in just one year after all these years of iPhone is intriguing.