The Next Big Thing

We’ve now had the iPad a few months and people are already asking, “What’s next?” While the rumors of a touchscreen iMac make me giggle, I don’t give them much stock. Apple is not in the habit of releasing products simply because they can. Everything is part of the big story. I was reminded of this when Steve introduced the iPad and spent so much time talking about exactly where it fits in the product line.

After the iPhone was released, we knew in our guts a tablet was coming and had our fun speculating when it would arrive and how it would work. There is no obvious next big thing now. Some may argue the next big thing is a fresh crack at the AppleTV. While that may be in the works, I don’t see it as the next big thing.

Indeed, I don’t think the next big thing is hardware related at all. Apple’s next big move needs to be the cloud. They have now loaded our bags and homes with Apple devices. They need to come up with a way to glue them together. That glue is cloud-based content.

While Apple has toyed with cloud storage and synchronization, they haven’t really taken the problem on. Times are changing though. Storage and bandwidth are increasingly available and inexpensive. The general population is becoming more comfortable with cloud based data storage. The corker is that Apple is now less willing to sit back and let Google control online data storage and synchronization.

Granted Google is ahead of Apple, it not as far ahead as some may think. The Google lifestyle is, currently, the domain of geeks. The Google online interfaces feel clunky and cryptic to mere mortals. Google has no experience delivering products to consumers and it shows.

In short, the time is right for Apple to step in. Apple’s genius is its ability to take an existing technology and make it stupid easy for everyone. Forget about anyone reading this blog. I’m talking about people who don’t even know what the term “cloud storage” means. The other 95%.

Apple’s next big thing needs to be a dead simple online storage solution. Something where all of your iTunes media, documents, pictures, and data exist in the cloud. A solution that allows you to go into the Apple store, buy an iPad, log into the Apple servers and have all of your data. Implementation will be so easy that typical users will not even realize exactly what is going on. They’ll just know it works.

Apple already has most of the pieces to make this work. They can build a user friendly interface. They can deliver it to the masses. The only missing piece is the ability to push the data. MobileMe certainly hasn’t proven this ability. There is a lot of talk about mystery server farms that may be the missing piece.

I have no idea what Steve will announce tomorrow but if Apple is going to stay in this game, the next big thing needs to be in the cloud.

iPad Changes the Game

The last few days have been exhilarating for all of us new iPad owners. Apple has unleashed a new device on the world that is no less paradigm shifting than the original Mac was 25 years ago. There are more positive reviews of the device than you can swing a dead cat at. If I were to read just two, I would make them Jason’s and Andy’s.

I’m not going to do a thorough review. Instead, I plan on sharing just a few observations and then returning in a month to write about how the iPad fits into my life.*

Game Changer

I suspected it before. Now that I’ve used one a few days, I’m convinced. I’ve written before about my experience with tablet computers. Apple finally got it right. Others will catch on. The answer is not trying to bolt a mouse based operating system on a tablet. You have to start from scratch.

I’m already getting real work done on the iPad. I wrote a brief today (and this post) using Pages and a bluetooth keyboard. I see myself in the not so distant future without a laptop. I won’t be alone.

The iPhone App Myth

While Apple certainly gets marketing traction saying how many apps will run on the iPad, you will want to get iPad native apps whenever possible. The iPhone apps look remarkably Atari 800 on the iPad. I’ve only kept those few that I can’t live without (SimpleNote and OmniFocus). While you are waiting for your favorite apps to get an iPad makeover, don’t forget about Safari. Mint and Dropbox, for example, work just fine in Safari and both experiences are better than a pixelated iPhone application.

Transparency

My most surprising observation of the iPad is how transparent it is. As transformative and revolutionary as this technology is, it gets out of the way extraordinarily fast. Flipping through RSS feeds, catching up on Instapaper (my own personal iPad killer app), or tweaking a Keynote presentation are so seamless that you forget about the iPad entirely. This isn’t just true for nerds like me. This was proven by my Mother.

My 80-year-old mother is amazing. She grew up in a small factory town in Massachusetts where they often caught dinner in a lake behind the house. During her lifetime she has seen the world go from buggy whips to the moon and from the radio to the internet. Nothing fazes her. I handed her my iPad and she started flipping through the pages of Winnie the Pooh. Even though she has never showed any interest in computers, she became absorbed with the content and forgot she was using something electronic. Then, as she was turning the page, she did something very natural. She licked her finger and turned the page. I grinned. This technology is so natural that you forget it exists. That is why the iPad is going to change everything.

There may also be a Mac Power Users episode very soon where Katie and I address the iPad in detail.

Flashtastrophy – Flash and the iPad

One result of the iPad announcement is the Jerry Springer-like feud between Adobe and Apple over Flash support on the iPad and iPhone. In case you’ve been living under a rock, the iPad doesn’t support the Flash plug-in in Mobile Safari.

Apple’s public reason for this is that Flash sucks. I tend to agree. Flash stems back to 1996 and, while it empowers web designers to add many bells and whistles to their sites, it also enables them to cripple my browser. While Apple has not said this publicly, Steve Jobs reportedly said as much at an Apple Town Hall Meeting after announcing the iPad. I don’t need any Apple crash reports to verify this; I see it on my own Mac. The lack of Flash stability is a big reason why the web is moving on with the .h264 and html5 standards.

Another reason I suspect Apple is distancing itself from Flash is the fact that Flash is Adobe’s proprietary code and the only proprietary code Apple wants on its mobile devices is its own. Some pundits have seized on this to claim Apple is trying to foist its own Quicktime format on people but I don’t think so. There have been no such overt moves and Apple seems more interested in the open html5 standard which does not match Flash’s feature set (yet) but is open and less prone to throttle your browser.

Adobe’s reason for wanting Flash on Apple mobile devices is simple. There are a lot of them. The more devices that turn their back on Flash, the less likely developers are to use it. Flash then losses its ubiquity. Today, Flash’s CTO, Kevin Lynch, explains, in essence, the ball is in Apple’s court. Apparently Adobe doesn’t realize or is ignoring the fact that Apple is not in the court. Indeed, Apple is not even in the stadium. Interestingly, the Lynch article also talks about how the web should be “open.”

We strongly believe the Web should remain an open
environment with consistent access to content and
applications regardless of your viewing device,

I’m not sure how that makes sense while Flash remains proprietary (closed) code.

Regardless, this issue is now very exciting and subject to much public gnashing of teeth. I think a significant portion of the “No Flash=No Purchase” posts/rants/comments are disingenuous. There are a lot of people that for reasons, both rational and irrational, want the iPad to fail, miserably. These folks had their posts written before January 27 and were simply waiting to fill in the blank on the fatal missing features.

For those genuinely upset about the absence of Flash, I think they should not be surprised given Apple’s prior exclusion of Flash. To those people I would first ask, “Do you really need Flash? Really?” Last year I installed Click2Flash on my Mac. This application stops all Flash code in its tracks unless you specifically allow it. Immediately after installing it, I witnessed a noticeable speed increase and stability improvement in Safari. I’ve also discovered it is a very rare case when I actually need to click to see a flash box. Whatever I’ve lost in the display of colorful (and distracting) advertising has been gained in clock cycles and stability.

The fact is, content creators don’t care about a religious war over browser plugins. They will use whatever will get their content before people’s eyes. That means they will code to the open standards if that’s what it takes. Sadly, it won’t be long before even Adobe’s listed pornography site will work just fine without Flash. Finally, If the availability of Flash is that important to you, don’t buy an iPad. There will be countless “iPad Killers” released in the next year chock full of Flash and other code to slow you down.

Another casualty of Apple’s removal of Flash is the loss of Flash gaming. This also seems to me a straw man argument. All of the internet Flash games I’ve ever experienced are largely keyboard based and I don’t see them translating well to a tablet device. Furthermore, there is the App store that includes many free mind-numbing games, many of which are direct ports of their Flash counterparts.

The scrap heap of technology includes many items Apple was “crazy” to abandon. Unless Adobe takes extreme measures to change course, in the not so distant future I suspect Flash will be sitting there right next to a dusty floppy drive.

How We Blew it with the iPad Predictions

I was looking at the final details of the iPad and comparing it to all the speculation beforehand. It seems the biggest mistake with all of the predictions was in focus. Everyone was looking for revolutionary features and ignoring what Apple does best, sweat the details. There were so many wheels spinning about exotic features, very few people thought about the simple things that need to be done right.

The iPad isn’t revolutionary in its feature set. It doesn’t look at my face to figure out who is driving it or incorporate expensive OLED screens. The iPad is revolutionary in execution. It takes the tablet features that never worked before and makes them work. It’s obvious now.

Tablet Musings

Two years ago, in a fit of pre-Macworld euphoria, I posted a short article explaining my history with tablet computers and my desire for Apple to bring its own special touch to the form factor. At the time, the idea of an iTablet was no more than wishful thinking. It appears, however, that my wish may be coming true. So what is there to add to this discussion where so many pixels have already been sacrificed? To start, it is a good idea to look at those those articles I’ve found most insightful.

While all three of the above articles have different takes on where this new device will go, they also have a common threads: the device is going to err on the side of simplicity over complexity. For instance, a user interface that more closely resembling an iPhone over that of a Mac. Likewise most agree the operating system will be more focused on the needs of a touch based tablet as opposed to the load anything, run anything operating system of the last generation of Windows tablets. This is most certainly the right direction.

My Tablet Experience

I used a tablet PC as my primary machine for about 18 months starting in 2003. This experience gave me some insight about what worked and what didn’t.

There really is nothing more natural than holding a screen in your arm and using a pen (or better yet finger) to manipulate the UI. It felt much more natural than a mouse when it worked. I do a great deal of reading. Doing my reading on the tablet almost made that experience easier. The hardware limitations got in the way but when the stars aligned and I was able to reference web content, saved research, and other assets with the stylus, it was quite liberating.

Interestingly, my favorite app on the PC tablet was Microsoft’s OneNote. This was the one application that was built with the idea of pen computing in mind and it felt like it. Sure it had some issues but taking notes with the pen generally worked. Furthermore, digital annotation of PDF files was painless. I think Microsoft had the right idea with this app but didn’t take it to its logical conclusion. They should have forked Windows and made a tablet operating system with tablet apps. If the full experience was like that of OneNote, Microsoft’s tablet push may have taken hold.

The biggest problem with the Tablet PC was hardware. It was heavy, large, slow to boot, ran extremely hot on my lap, and the battery life was dreadful. Put simply, it did everything to discourage me from taking it out of my bag except zap me with 120 volts every time I touched it.

So Apple is probably cooking up its own tablet. Presumably it will have a sleek design that incorporates a custom UI, instant on, and otherwise cure most of the sins that led me to ultimately ditch my last tablet computer. This still leads to the question, however, of “why?” What is the compelling reason to use a tablet when we already have incredibly powerful laptops and equally handy pocket computers in our phones. Even though Apple has never even acknowledged the tablet project, PC World has already determined it would be useless for business. I disagree.

How Does It Fit?

A lot of people are asking what they would do with a tablet. I’m sure Apple has an explanation or they wouldn’t release a product. Apple enters markets with a sniper rifle, not a bazooka. As a former tablet user, I have some ideas how I would use such a device.

Reading/Research

I’ve been using a first generation Kindle for some time and come to rely upon it. While I initially made fun of the technology, the ability to carry professional journals, reference materials, Instapaper articles, and fiction anywhere is wonderful. Using an Apple Tablet, I’d be able to duplicate that functionality and combine it with a working browser, which brings everything up a notch.

Also, Don’t underestimate the use of a well executed tablet while working at your real computer. It becomes a second monitor and processor. For instance, I could annotate research on the tablet and refer to that screen while writing about the research on my iMac or MacBook. You could also run social networking apps, like Twitter, on the tablet while working on your Mac or even watch a screencast about software on the tablet while operating the software on the Mac.

Sharing

Much of my daily routine involves sharing information with others, be it in the form of PDF’s, timelines, diagrams, or Keynote slides. Being able to do this on a tablet would be extremely convenient and natural in small meetings.

Organization

Much of my routine involves data management in applications like OmniFocus, Bento, OmniOutliner, and my PDF viewer. I don’t need a keyboard with these apps so much as I need quick access to reference materials and the ability to make adjustments. The ability to access this data without sitting down to a laptop would be great.

Surfing

While you certainly don’t need a tablet to review RSS feeds and web surf, it sure would be handy if the UI is done right.

Entertainment

I’ve never watched many movies on the iPhone because the screen is too small. This is even more true for educational video podcasts. That problem disappears entirely with a 10” screen. Moreover, the tablet could be a fantastic gaming machine. Playing chess on a larger screen strikes me as a much more pleasurable experience than on an iPhond. I’m sure that would be equally true for any of the tower defense and action titles that would immediately flood any Apple tablet App Store.

Writing

Writing on a tablet seems to be the biggest challenge. This will entirely depend on Apple’s implementation. I think it will be difficult to have any system match my typing speed unless the device works with a bluetooth keyboard. I’ve been wanting one of those on the iPhone since it launched and I’m not holding my breath. I will note, however, that since most iPhone apps now work in landscape mode, I’ve found my typing accuracy and speed on it to have substantially improved. Regardless, we’ll have to wait until the 27th on this one.

Editing Documents

While I have some concerns about writing on a tablet, I think it would be ideal for proof reading and editing. I have followed the rumors of a tablet version of iWork with some attention. I think this would be a great platform to make small edits. Pages, Numbers, and Keynote on the tablet would be ideal.

The App Store

I expect the Apple tablet to have the same gold-rush onslaught of applications that the iPhone received. I’m sure creative developers will find new ways for me to use the device that I’ve never dreamed of.

One More Revolution

I’m really fortunate. I used PC’s before the Mac and was there to see the way the original Mac fundamentally changed the relationship between humans and their computers. I saw a similar transformation a few years ago with the introduction of the iPhone. I am now very excited to see what Apple does with the tablet form factor. It is, in my opinion, the next revolution and I can not wait to be a part of it.

On the Future of Macworld

There is quite a stir in the Mac blogosphere the last few days over the future of Macworld Conference and Expo. Some knowledgeable commentators, such as Jim Dalrymple and Steve Sande have written it is likely Macworld 2010 will be the last. I disagree. Here is why.

No Apple ≠ No Macworld

I have never spoken to a single attendee who said the highlight of their Macworld visit was the Apple booth. While it is very nice to get your hands on Apple devices on the Macworld show floor, it is hardly the draw. I will drive by three Apple stores full of shiny new macs on my way to the Airport when I go to Macworld next month.

Likewise goes for the Apple Keynote. Steve Jobs has given some truly remarkable Keynotes at Macworlds past. He is an extraordinary showman and Apple has made some fantastic products. However, a lot of times Steve did not climb on stage with much ammunition and the Keynotes were really not that interesting despite his super-human presentation skills. Think about it. How much were you “blown away” by the Apple TV refresh of 2008 or the iLife introduction in 2005? Even last year Phil Schiller had to work really hard to make iWork.com more than a snoozefest. More to the point, of the thousands and thousands of people who attend Macworld, how many actually got in to see the Apple Keynote? A small percentage.

I still find Apple’s withdrawal baffling. The people who attend Macworld are the passionate bloggers, power users, and programmers that make the Mac special. They are the sharp end of the stick. While I appreciate that a business argument can be made to cut costs, Apple’s quarterly profits are measured in the billions and supporting its developers and most avid users seems a very worthwhile investment.

Regardless, Macworld can get by just fine without Apple. In lieu of a large Keynote for a select audience, IDG has put together a series of featured speakers that are all both knowledgeable and entertaining. Watching people like David Pogue, Andy Ihnatko and John Gruber will be far more entertaining and educational than hearing someone from Apple prattle on about the latest menu item in iPhoto.

IDG Is Listening

I was in attendance at the Macworld town hall meeting last year. There wasn’t a seat in the place and people were lining the walls, two or three deep in some places. Many ideas were proposed and several of them (like moving the date to February) were implemented this year. Some critics have argued IDG dropped the ball by not moving the expo to a different town. I would speculate that a place like the Moscone Center is booked years in advance and IDG already had contractual obligations for 2010. Perhaps in future years the Expo will move. Either way, I’ve had some inside exposure to the Macworld planning and can report that the people behind it are extremely passionate about making it the best show possible and are looking very closely at every suggestion, the wacky and brilliant alike.

Don’t Forget the Conference

Macworld is a lot more than a group of vendors and software developers. It also includes a world class conference where users and professionals can learn a lot about their Macs and how to use them. At the conference you can become a networking and security expert, an Applescript guru, or just maybe a more savvy Mac user. Every year, IDG assembles an all-star cast of instructors and attendees can learn a great deal on any of the conference tracks.

There is No Substitute

There is an argument that if Macworld were to disappear, there would be no real loss to the Mac community. I couldn’t disagree more. Macworld is a special place. While local user groups are nice and the internet community is a great resource, neither can hold a candle to the flesh and bones gathering of the true believers.

Macworld is about users and everyone there is a zealot. Nowhere else in the entire world can you look at the guy in front of you in the sandwich line, ask him how to zip a file in Applescript, and receive a prompt, if not concise, answer that is spot on. The concentration of Mac geekiness in the room is palpable and, if you have experienced it, unforgettable. It is a communal experience that, if lost, will not be replaced. This point also goes toward the issue of the decline of trade shows. Macworld is more than a trade show.

“Everything changes, nothing remains without change.”

-The Buddha

An Opportunity Exists

Without being tied to Apple’s presence, Macworld could very likely evolve into something even more useful to Mac users, developers, and professionals. Regardless, declaring it dead a month before it even begins defies logic. There will be a different vibe at Macworld this year. As Buddha says, things change. There are a lot of very smart people working hard to make this change for the better. Who is to say they won’t succeed?